03 Jun Why Is It So Hard to Predict the Future? This 20 year study shows that generalists are better to predict future than specialists – Can this be a useful approach to #DigitalTransformation? I think s…
In Tetlock’s 20-year study, both the broad foxes and the narrow hedgehogs were quick to let a successful prediction reinforce their beliefs. But when an outcome took them by surprise, foxes were much more likely to adjust their ideas. Hedgehogs barely budged. Some made authoritative predictions that turned out to be wildly wrong—then updated their theories in the wrong direction. They became even more convinced of the original beliefs that had led them astray. The best forecasters, by contrast, view their own ideas as hypotheses in need of testing. If they make a bet and lose, they embrace the logic of a loss just as they would the reinforcement of a win. This is called, in a word, learning.
Sourced through Scoop.it from: www.theatlantic.com
WHY IT MATTERS: this is a great article about a very serious study. I believe that digital transformationalists like me are a bit like foxes in this article: we consider people + process + technology in our transformation plans and often have to adjust over time as we learn more about the situation (very much in line with the Agile methodology). We consider not only technology but also how people will be affected and assign money and effort to support them. Often our solutions are less than perfect but adequate for the current needs and maturity of our client.